The Talent Market Is Already Moving. Which Gaps Will Appear First?

The latest pause to Local Government Reorganisation may have changed the immediate timetable, but it hasn’t put the talent market on hold.

Our latest LGR and Devolution research, conducted before the most recent announcement, showed just how much uncertainty was already influencing senior leaders. Three quarters of respondents said LGR had affected their career plans, up from 61% the previous year. Seventy per cent were concerned about staff leaving, 18% were considering bringing retirement forward, and 28% were considering leaving local government altogether.

The latest pause may give some leaders more time to think, while for others it may simply extend a period of uncertainty they were already trying to resolve. Either way, the decisions people make will continue to have an impact on the talent market.

For councils, the important question is what happens when those individual decisions start to create organisational gaps.

People with the most options are often able to move first. Experienced senior leaders with established track records, specialist expertise and strong networks may not need to wait for every question around organisational structures to be resolved before considering what comes next. By the time a resignation arrives, the decision behind it may have been developing for months.

The impact of losing an experienced leader also goes well beyond filling a vacancy. Senior people carry organisational knowledge, relationships and experience that can be difficult to replace quickly. In a period of continued change, losing that capacity can place additional pressure on the people who remain and make it harder for an organisation to maintain momentum. And if several organisations are competing for similar expertise at the same time, the recruitment challenge becomes even more pronounced.

The risk, therefore, isn't simply that councils may have more vacancies. It is that some of those vacancies could emerge at the same time, in roles where the available talent pool is already relatively limited.

Our research also found that 18% of senior leaders were considering bringing retirement forward, while more than a quarter were considering leaving local government altogether. These findings point to a potential loss of experience and capability as well as movement between organisations, particularly at a time when councils are already having to navigate significant change.

That makes it important for councils to think about their talent position before a vacancy appears. Which roles would create the greatest operational risk if they became vacant? Where is there limited depth in the existing leadership pipeline? Which individuals hold particularly important knowledge or relationships? And what does the external market look like if you suddenly need to recruit?

These aren't questions that need to wait for the final shape of LGR. The workforce implications of reform remain significant, and our research highlighted the risk of losing experienced leaders whose knowledge, relationships and leadership capacity can be difficult to replace.

There is also a timing issue. If an organisation waits until someone hands in their notice before looking at the market, it is already responding rather than preparing. Understanding the talent market in advance gives councils more options. It means knowing where the strongest candidates are, what experience is available and what will make an opportunity attractive to someone who already has choices.

It also means thinking about succession and internal development alongside external recruitment. Not every gap needs to be filled through an immediate external appointment, but organisations need to understand where their future leadership capacity is coming from and where there may be vulnerabilities.

The pause to LGR may provide more time for some decisions to be made, but workforce planning cannot simply be paused alongside it. As our research shows, people have already been making decisions about their careers, and those decisions will continue to shape the leadership market.

For councils, the priority now is to understand where they would feel the loss of experience most acutely and whether they are prepared for it. The talent market is already moving, and organisations that understand where their biggest gaps could appear and start preparing before they do will be better placed to maintain the leadership capacity they need for whatever comes next.